The Russian Agricultural Machinery Market: How Demand Will Change In 2026

The situation is affecting the entire supply chain—from manufacturing plants to end consumers, farms, and agricultural holdings. For market participants in crop production machinery, storage, and processing equipment, the question is pressing: when will recovery begin and what steps should be taken today?

Results for 2025 and the first quarter of 2026

According to the Rosspetsmash Association, domestic agricultural machinery shipments in 2025 totaled 155 billion rubles, a 21% decline compared to the previous year. The decline affected all key categories: balers lost 36.7%, and combine harvesters fell by about 20%. The imported segment declined even more significantly, by approximately 35-40%, according to ASKHOD. Q1 2026 performance for key equipment types:

Total production for the first quarter of 2026 was 42 billion rubles (-37% year-on-year). The only exception was combine harvesters (+3%). Rostselmash recorded a net loss of approximately 1.5 billion rubles for 2025.

Factors putting pressure on demand

The sales decline is the result of a confluence of several systemic factors. Market participants and industry analysts identify the key reasons:

• The Central Bank's high key rate - from the beginning of 2025, it reached 21%, and was gradually reduced by April 2026. Following the April 24 meeting, the rate was reduced to 14.5%, but this is not enough to restore investment activity.
• Profitability decline - According to Strategy Partners, profitability has fallen to 13%. Wheat price in February 2026: RUB 11,600/t (-18% y/y).
• Rising cost of equipment – ​​prices have increased significantly over the past three years, making purchases unaffordable for many households.
• Insufficient funding for Program 1432 - subsidies are exhausted by mid-year. As reported in Agroinvestor magazine, Rosspetsmash estimates the required amount at 20 billion rubles annually.

The combined effect of these factors has led to a significant portion of the country's agricultural machinery fleet being operated beyond its standard service life.

Forecasts: stagnation or growth points

Experts agree that 2026 will be a transitional year. Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline Analytics, believes that a slowdown in the decline is possible as early as the second half of the year, with an improvement not expected until 2027. Alexander Altynov, Chairman of the Board of ASKHOD, is more cautious: the emphasis of his forecast has shifted from "sales might increase" to "at least they don't decline."

"Without preferential leasing and subsidies, the sales decline could have exceeded 30-35%. However, farmers faced program limits and delays in receiving funds ," Strategy Partners analysts said.

In 2026, Rosagroleasing received over 15 billion rubles from the federal budget to purchase 6,600 units of equipment, of which 2 billion was additional funding under Government Decree No. 192-r. Potential demand is 42,000 units annually with a ten-year renewal cycle.

Business Adaptation: What Market Participants Should Do

The protracted downturn is forcing all participants in the supply chain—producers, dealers, and agricultural holdings—to reconsider their strategies. Practical steps that can reduce costs and maintain competitiveness include:

• make maximum use of existing government support programs - subsidized leasing, Program 1432, subsidies through the Electronic Budget;
• generate deferred demand: prepare documentation in advance to meet limits at the beginning of the financial year;
• consider cooperation for the joint purchase of equipment and reduction of specific costs;
• establish direct contacts with manufacturers at industry venues.

This last point takes on particular importance during times of turbulence. When traditional sales channels fail, in-person negotiations and demonstrations of the technology in action become decisive arguments.

Industry exhibitions as a development tool

The international exhibition "YUGAGRO" remains a business venue uniting key players in the plant growing equipment market. In 2025, the event attracted over 650 companies from 14 countries and 19,763 specialists from 77 regions and 40 countries. The 33rd exhibition will be held November 17–20, 2026, at the Expograd Yug Exhibition and Convention Complex in Krasnodar. For market participants, "YUGAGRO" serves several functions:

- A platform for contract negotiations. Agricultural holdings, peasant farms, and dealers conduct substantive negotiations directly with producers.

- A showcase of new products. Premieres of machinery, seeds, agrochemicals, and storage and processing equipment—all on one platform.

- Business program. Over 40 events, 80 speakers—representatives of the government, industry associations, and major agricultural enterprises.

In times of a demand crisis, exhibition venues are becoming a meeting point: here, partnerships are formed, systemic solutions are discussed, and contracts for the next agricultural season are negotiated.

Key findings

The Russian agricultural machinery market is undergoing structural transformation. A third year of declining sales has exposed the industry's dependence on the cost of borrowed capital, agribusiness profitability, and the scale of government support. Rosspetsmash estimates that recovery is possible with a sustained reduction in the key interest rate and an increase in funding for subsidy programs to 20 billion rubles annually. Until these conditions are met, the focus is on pent-up demand: over 50% of the country's equipment is worn beyond the norm, and the annual replacement potential is estimated at 42,000 units. For businesses, this means they need to be proactive—utilizing available support tools, seeking partners in industry forums, and preparing for the market's turnaround.

Free online registration for visitors to YUGAGRO 2026 is now open.

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• The general partner of the exhibition is Rostselmash.
• The general sponsor of the exhibition is the company "ROSAGROTRADE".
• The exhibition's strategic sponsor is CLAAS