17-20 November, 2026 Expograd Yug, Krasnodar
The Russian grain sector closed 2025 with results that will determine the export configuration for the coming seasons.
With a grain harvest of 141.2 million tons, the country shipped 58 million tons of grain to foreign markets, maintaining its position as the world's largest wheat supplier. At the same time, the export landscape has changed: the geography of shipments has expanded, the government has doubled the export quota, and port infrastructure is undergoing a major overhaul. It is important for market participants—from agricultural holdings to equipment suppliers—to understand the opportunities and constraints shaping these processes.
According to Rosstat's final data, the gross grain and legume harvest in 2025 amounted to 141.2 million tons—the third-highest in Russia's recent history. Wheat harvested totaled 91 million tons (up 10.6% compared to 2024), barley 19.7 million tons (up 18.3%), and legumes a record 8 million tons.
A bumper harvest ensured a comfortable export supply. In 2025, 50 million tons of grain were shipped to foreign markets, 41 million tons of which was wheat. Wheat exports reached 5.5 million tons in November 2025 and 4.2 million tons in December. Both figures were eight-year highs.
Russia supplied grain to 115 countries, with approximately 78% of its wheat exports going to countries in Africa and the Middle East. The largest buyers were Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Bangladesh.
One of the notable shifts in 2025 was the expansion of export geography. The number of countries purchasing Russian grain continues to grow—agricultural products were supplied to over 170 countries. Rosselkhoznadzor (the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance) has recorded increases in shipments to a number of destinations:
- Cameroon - 3 times increase;
- Iraq - 2 times increase;
- Sudan - +80%;
- Lebanon - +45%;
- China - +20%.
This dynamic reduces dependence on a limited number of buyers and increases the stability of export flows. In 2026, wheat shipments to Mexico and sugar beet pulp to Morocco resumed through Leningrad Oblast ports.
At the same time, the commodity structure of exports is changing. The share of grain in the value of exports has decreased from 37% to 27%, oil and fat products have increased to 22%, and high-value-added exports have exceeded $20 billion. The Ministry of Agriculture sets the goal of reducing the share of grain to 25% by 2030.
State regulation remains a key factor for grain companies. In 2026, the government doubled the tariff-rate export quota for wheat, barley, and corn, from 10.6 to 20 million tons. In April, an additional quota of 5 million tons was approved. The bulk of this quota is distributed among 213 exporters. The mechanism works as follows:
Doubling the quota is a clear signal of export incentives. However, businesses remain challenged by profitability: low domestic grain prices and the strong ruble exchange rate reduce the attractiveness of export operations.
The logistics component of exports is undergoing a transformation. Russia's port capacity for grain transshipment exceeded 63 million tons in 2024, and total terminal capacity reached approximately 70 million tons. However, longer routes and rising shipping costs have become a challenge for exporters.
According to Rusagrotrans, the cost of delivering a ton of grain to the port of Novorossiysk increased by 36% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Grain carrier rental costs could increase by another 22% by the end of 2026. Against this backdrop, alternative routes are gaining importance. Key infrastructure projects on the horizon for 2026–2027 include:
The redistribution of cargo flows from the south to the northwest is already underway. The port of Vysotsk handled 1.1 million tons of grain in 2025, while St. Petersburg increased its volume from 31,700 to 152,000 tons. The reconstruction of the Gorodets Hydroelectric Power Plant will allow for the delivery of up to 500,000 tons of grain by river from the Volga region.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimates grain export potential for the 2025/2026 season at 53–55 million tons, including 43–44 million tons of wheat. IKAR and SovEcon offer comparable estimates, noting increased competition: global wheat supply is high, and France has significantly increased its harvest.
The competitiveness of Russian grain will depend on logistics costs, the ruble exchange rate, and the quality of storage infrastructure. Industry events like the YUGAGRO International Exhibition in Krasnodar play a practical role here: over 600 companies from 14 countries present equipment and solutions for the entire value chain—from soil preparation to storage, processing, and packaging equipment. For grain companies and equipment manufacturers, this is an opportunity to identify technologies that directly impact production costs and, as part of the business program, discuss logistics, export strategies, and government support measures with experts and market participants.
Russia's grain exports enter 2026 with a strong resource base, expanded quotas, and growing port infrastructure. The main risks—logistics costs, global competition, and regulatory burdens—have not disappeared, but the resource base and infrastructure projects give the industry room to maneuver. The new season will reveal how effectively businesses can utilize this space in the new environment.
