Grain And Oilseed Prices: What's Affecting The Market In 2026?

Over the past year, the average grain sales price in Russia has fallen by 18% to approximately 11,900 rubles per tonne, with production costs approaching this level in many regions. Oilseeds, on the other hand, are maintaining their margins: sunflower seeds are 2–2.5 times more expensive than wheat, and oilseed acreage has increased by 11.1% in 2025, reaching 21 million hectares. What's behind this imbalance, what factors determine price dynamics, and what to expect in the 2025/2026 season-we examine the details.

Grains: Margin pressure

The grain market price situation is unfavorable for producers. According to Rosstat, the average wheat price in November 2025 was 12,142 rubles per tonne, 10% lower than the previous year. By March 2026, the decline accelerated: the average grain price fell to 11,923 rubles per tonne, down 18% from March 2025.

The regional spread is significant: the lowest prices are in the Siberian Federal District (around 10,150 rubles/tonne), while the highest are in the Southern and North Caucasus Federal Districts (14,200–14,400 rubles/tonne). To maintain profitability, analysts estimate that the wheat price must remain at 18,000 rubles/tonne. Current prices leave farmers with minimal or negative margins. Three key factors are simultaneously putting pressure on grain prices:

• A bumper harvest. The 2025 gross harvest is 141.2 million tons, the third-highest total in history. Domestic market glut is driving down purchasing prices.
• Export duty. A floating duty absorbs a significant portion of the export premium and eliminates the incentive to hold onto grain in anticipation of growth.
• A strong ruble. The strengthening of the national currency has reduced the competitiveness of Russian grain on the global market.

By mid-2025, FOB Novorossiysk export quotations had fallen to $225-230 per ton. December saw record negative export profitability, with losses reaching $10-15 per ton. Against this backdrop, spring wheat acreage in 2025 fell to a ten-year low-to 11.8 million hectares, according to SovEcon. IKAR analysts do not rule out further declines if the pricing environment remains unchanged.

Oilseeds: A Renaissance of Marginality

Against the backdrop of the grain crisis, oilseeds look significantly more attractive. Oilseed acreage reached a record 21 million hectares in 2025. IKAR predicts this trend will continue: record sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed sowings are expected in 2026.

Sunflower seeds are sold at an average of 36,500 rubles per ton (according to RUSEED data as of March 2026), and soybeans at 28,000 rubles per ton.

However, rising supply is also putting pressure on this segment. Record soybean (9 million tonnes, up 26.9%) and rapeseed (5.6 million tonnes) harvests are creating a surplus of raw materials. The increase in the export duty on sunflower oil is further constraining exports and putting pressure on domestic prices. Nevertheless, oilseeds remain the most profitable segment of crop production.

Global context: between excess and deficit

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), global wheat production in the 2025/2026 season has reached a record 819 million tonnes, and consumption is also around 819 million tonnes-the market is balanced. Global ending stocks of wheat could fall to 260 million tonnes, the lowest in a decade.

However, competition is intensifying. France has significantly increased its harvest, while Australia and Canada are also increasing their supply. SovEcon analysts note a "megasupply of wheat on the global market," which is preventing prices from rising despite declining stocks. For Russian exporters, this means an increasingly fierce price battle for market share.

Trends and forecasts for 2026

Market participants identify several trends that will determine price dynamics in the new season:

- continuation of the flow of areas from grain to oilseeds;

- reduction of carry-over stocks at elevators;

- possible weakening of the ruble as an incentive for exports;

- doubling the export quota to 20 million tons.

The combination of these factors could tip the balance in favor of producers in the second half of 2026. For suppliers of equipment, agrochemicals, and seeds, a shift toward oilseeds signifies a shift in demand structure. Industry events like YUGAGRO in Krasnodar have already seen growing interest in specialized solutions for the oilseed segment-from harvesters and dryers to hybrid sunflower seeds.

The main conclusion of the season

The 2026 price picture for crop production is mixed. Grains remain under pressure from high supply and regulatory burdens, although declining plantings and global stockpiles are creating the conditions for a correction. Oilseeds retain a price advantage, but record harvests are limiting margin growth. For farmers, this signals the need to diversify crop rotations and reduce production costs. Companies capable of offering technologies that increase efficiency on a per-hectare basis will be at the center of demand in the new season.